Speaking before the Congress on Tuesday, the president gave an assessment of the economic and political situation in the country.
He noted that 94 million Americans withdrew from the labor force, while the total US population is of 320 million people.
In the labor force, the entire population aged over 16 years is accounted. It seems that Trump’s statistics takes into account also students, pensioners and persons with disabilities.
Of course, in the labor market remains a number of problems, however, since the financial crisis, it has shown an impressive recovery. The fact that the labor force participation rate reached a minimum of 30 years can be explained by the aging population and retiring “baby-boomers”.
Unemployment is approaching lows since the recession, and the number of new jobs moves to the highs. Since 2008, 11 million new jobs appeared in the US private sector.
Fear Index: Europe waits for the elections and panics
The intentions of Trump, his statements and actions push the US market higher and higher, and it seems that the lack of money may not even take place.
And, of course, for the US market problems in Europe are not completely obvious, where the situation can be described as the “calm before the storm”.
On the eve of elections in France and the Netherlands, European investors have already started to prepare for a disaster, and this is clearly shown by European futures on VIX.
VIX is also considered a fear index, but this is its interpretation, rather than a definition. First of all, VIX was created to determine the expectations of volatility.
It shows the investors’ expectations about price volatility over the next 30-year period. Generally, VIX is a ticker of CBOE Volatility Index, a popular volatility index of S&P 500 index. It is calculated according to Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).
Last week, European investors bought futures on VIX, especially revealing changes were for May and April futures.
The spread between April and May futures on volatility index rose sharply just in the run-up to the French elections.
Now this rally is even greater than in times of the referendum on Brexit. Apparently, at the time of the election itself we will have the strongest growth of “fear”.
The difference in spreads is also amazing in this plan. And this means that either stock investors are overly concerned, or bond investors do not see any threat.
Investors fear that the polls underestimate the risks associated with the victory of Le Pen, as it was with Trump or Brexit last year.
Historically it is established, that the European VIX is trading about 20% higher than the US, and this ratio has been observed in the last 8 years. Current gap increase to 80% is unprecedented.