On March 15, the country will hold the elections of the Prime Minister.
28 parties are trying to get a chance to form a new government.
In Holland, there is a proportional electoral system, which means that a coalition is necessary.
Of the 150 seats, to get the majority, it is necessary to take 76, and the new government is likely to consist of 4-6 different parties.
VVD – People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (40 seats);
The Liberal Party, led by acting Prime Minister Mark Rutte, has a majority in the parliament since 2012;
PvdA – Labour Party (35 seats), led by Vice Prime Minister Lodewijk Asscher;
SP – Socialist Party (15 seats), led by Emil Roemer;
CDA – Christian Union (13 seats), led by Sybrand van Haersma Buma;
PVV – Party of Freedom (12 seats), led by Eurosceptic Geert Wilders;
D66 – “Democrats 66” (12 seats);
GL – “Greens Party” (4 seats).
What do the polls say?
According to recent polls, liberals are in the lead, who can get 23-27 seats in the parliament.
Wilders somewhat lost his popularity, but reserves the second position with 21-25 places.
Christian union goes third (18-20 seats), then – “Democrats 66” (17-19 seats), “Greens” (15-17 seats), Socialists (14-16 seats) and Labour Party (11-13 seats).
What does this mean for Holland?
In order to overcome the threshold of the majority in the parliament, 76 seats, at least 5 parties will have to join their forces.
Wilders excluded the possibility of forming a coalition with liberals and other forces.
Most likely, the coalition will be formed by four parties of the central spectrum – the Liberals, the Christian Union, the Democrats-66 and the Labour Party.
Impact on bonds
10-year state bonds of Holland have been recovering steadily in recent months, after the collapse at the beginning of the year. However, volatility persisted in the last month, and investors are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the elections.
Voting will take place on Wednesday, 15th of March.
The votes will be counted overnight, that is, by 5-6 in the morning the winner will be already known, however, the formation of the coalition will take weeks, or even months.
What does this mean for Europe?
The outcome of the elections will have a tangible impact on France and Germany, in which, too, parliamentary elections will be held this year.
If Wilders gets strong support, Europe will wait for a period of uncomfortable expectation of the effect, which will have a triumph of populism in the Netherlands to other countries.